Intel, Matsushita, Nokia, Samsung, and Toshiba have formed a global consortium, Project Hudson, that soon plans to announce a new system for shielding digital music, video, and software from unauthorized file sharing. The consortium seeks the support of the film and music industries by claiming that its Internet-based wireless protection scheme can limit the duplication of digital content without unduly barring use. Under the system, handheld users would be allowed to share a certain number of digital files, while file sharing for strictly promotional reasons would be permitted as well. Apple Computer, RealNetworks, and others are also touting new copy protection systems, but Project Hudson's chief adversary is Microsoft with its Windows Media Rights manager scheme; however, the deployment of Microsoft's plan has been postponed over claims of software patent infringement by Intertrust, as well as entertainment industry concerns over the amount of control Microsoft would have over digital media. Meanwhile, the Content Reference Forum, whose sponsors include Microsoft, VeriSign, and Universal Music Group, announced an initiative in December to build standards that allow digital content to be distributed across different platforms and technologies. The success of Apple's iTunes music store also proves the willingness of consumers to submit to digital copy protection schemes provided they give them a wide berth for the way they use entertainment products. "If you put up the right kind of speed bump people will generally honor it," asserts Public Knowledge attorney Mike Godwin. As more and more competing digital information protection systems emerge, people are starting to recognize the need for common industry standards: Electrical engineer Leonardo Chiariglione warns, "If we stay with digital islands people have a legitimate excuse to piracy."
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The prolonged jobless recovery highlights the effect of offshore outsourcing, or offshoring, on white-collar service jobs: Numerous industries and even some government agencies employ educated workers overseas to achieve cost savings, though laws are being passed that would bar offshore contracts for government work or give preference to American firms. Economy.com estimates that almost 1 million "new economy" positions--in IT, business, financial services, and others--have moved overseas since the beginning of the downturn in early 2001; Forrester Research predicts a continued outbound flow of service and professional work so that by 2015, 3.3 million jobs will have left the country; and University of California, Berkeley, researchers warn that at least 14 million U.S. service jobs are possible offshoring candidates. Numbers today, however, show the majority of recent job losses has been in the manufacturing sector, which shed nearly 2.7 million jobs in the last three years. In California, the percentage of jobs lost was similar to other states, but the effect was exacerbated by the type of jobs that disappeared--high-paying jobs in the technology sector. Some say that opposition to offshoring in the form of protectionism will only serve to harm the U.S. economy in the long run and that U.S. businesses and government must learn to take advantage of the potential benefits of offshoring. Stuart Anderson recently wrote a report critical of legislative action against offshoring in Indiana, saying that a Tata Consultancy bid $8.2 million lower than the U.S.-based competitor could have saved taxpayers money. Those savings could be invested elsewhere to create additional jobs and wealth; globalization is not a zero sum game, Anderson says. Dave Wyle, whose SurePrep tax preparation firm employs Indian accountants, compares the use of offshore professionals to spreadsheet software that improved productivity and eliminated many paper-based accountant positions.
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A December report from the Defense Department's Inspector General concludes that the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) ignored privacy concerns raised by the Terrorism Information Awareness (TIA) program, an initiative to uncover and thwart possible terrorist activity by mining databases. TIA acquired a nasty reputation when privacy proponents criticized the program's potential for domestic spying, a charge that DARPA director Anthony Tether has refuted. The IG report states that though TIA technology could have some value in the war against terrorism, "DARPA could have better addressed the sensitivity of the technology to minimize the possibility of any governmental abuse of power and could have assisted in the successful transition of the technology into the operational environment." TIA was rendered defunct when almost all funding for the program was withdrawn with the passage of the Defense Appropriations Bill, while TIA researchers attributed the program's sudden death in late September to DARPA's failure to adequately explain its uses and security measures. The IG report states that its content "remains applicable in the event that program concerns are resolved or DOD pursues similar technologies in the future." The report urges DARPA and the undersecretary of defense for acquisition, technology, and logistics to carry out privacy impact evaluations prior to the development of such technology in the future, while the undersecretary should appoint a privacy ombudsman to make sure that privacy concerns are addressed in the assessment of similar future technologies. Tether insists that Congress had no reason to worry about TIA's privacy implications, and argues that the concerns which led to the IG's probe did not fully encompass the issues surrounding TIA.
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Biometric security technologies are getting a boost from fears of global terrorism and illegal immigrants, and the next couple of years should see a proliferation of these technologies and their inclusion in identity documents. The introduction of biometric technologies is expected to accelerate this year, following the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's policy to adopt specific security measures by a certain time and issue high ID security standards. January marks the official launch of the U.S.-Visitor and Immigration Status Indicator Technology Program, which requires every visa-holder who enters the United States at any airport or seaport to be photographed and fingerprinted so that their biometric identifiers can be stored in a national database for comparison with a list of known terrorists; 27 nations in the U.S. Visa Waiver Program will be required to start distributing machine-readable passports with biometric data to citizens, and this data will likely relate to facial identifiers and be stored on encrypted computer chips. No secure ID document depends on one individual authentication or anti-counterfeiting device, and the rollout of new security technologies is proceeding slower than some experts originally anticipated. Advanced Optical Technologies CEO Mark Turnage says, "Governments across the world have to look carefully at all their national ID systems--from issuance procedures right through to the point at which a law enforcement or customs agent is asked to verify a document's authenticity." Upgrading other secure documents besides passports--visas, driver's licenses, etc.--is also on governments' agendas. The U.K. government unveiled in November a 10-month plan to adopt a "biometric passport" as a national ID card, as well as a "biometric residence permit" for foreign nationals and European Union officials entering Britain for over three months.
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University of Melbourne researchers have created Gridscape, a simple toolkit for quickly developing grid computing testbed portals without programming. Users can plug in data such as a testbed name, logo, information about the computers being employed by the testbed, and a geographical map via a template in Gridscape, according to the University of Melbourne's Rajkunar Buyya, who explains that the goal of the Gridscape project is to create "a more generic solution" for grid monitoring. The researcher notes that the tool offers users a holistic perspective of a testbed displaying user application tasks running on various grid nodes; Gridscape can also be used to seek out resources such as computers with specific properties, check the properties of a given resource, and detect currently online resources. "The status of Grid resources is displayed on a geographic map [of] the testbed [that] can be queried further for detailed information," Buyya explains. The starting point for Gridscape was the Globus Grid toolkit, which Buyya says offered a standard interface for collecting data about grid resources. He adds that the Gridscape interface is interactive, dynamic, and boasts widescale availability, while the tool's client-side portion only comprises a small amount of computing resources. Buyya cautions, however, that Gridscape may lack specificity for certain testbed requirements. Further developments down the line include the release of an open-source version of Gridscape and support for mobile phones and handhelds, while Buyya envisions a time when "Grid computing power [will] become analogous to our current electrical power grids."
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Dan Gillmor writes that two events in January 1984--the launch of Apple's Macintosh PC and the fragmentation of the AT&T monopoly--still resonate today. He recalls that AT&T's major creative strength before the breakup was Bell Labs, which contributed many core technologies that support current computing and communications, but was saddled with an outdated flagship product in voice communications. The breakup sparked competition, but Gillmor laments that it was done improperly. Long-distance service was commoditized, while the Baby Bell regional operating companies established their own monopolies; the author says the disruption caused by the emergence of digital technologies could have been anticipated with more foresight. "It seemed impossible at the time, but perhaps we could have broken up AT&T in a way that promoted system-wide competition among many companies for local and long distance, observing that data communications would ultimately subsume both," he concludes. Gillmor notes that the Baby Bells were supposed to adhere to a policy of neutrality when the Internet began to migrate into mass markets through dial-up service providers, but the Baby Bells are attempting to control both their channels and the content transmitted over them. A much more positive development was the Apple Macintosh, a PC model combining ease-of-use and a graphical interface that has influenced modern PC design and jump-started services such as desktop publishing and the more contemporary iTunes music store. "Apple is the champion of thinking big, not just different(ly): combining form and function with a stylishness that, at times, has bordered on art," Gillmor enthuses.
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Rob Pegoraro writes that 2003 saw significant technological advancements in several areas, but the glut of malware and spam generally made the Internet experience less fun for users. He reports that Microsoft's long-term ignorance of security issues finally bore bitter fruit thanks to worms, viruses, spyware, and other intruders that exploited flaws in Microsoft Windows; users of Macintosh and Linux were generally spared these intrusions, whose impact on the online experience, both emotionally and financially, ranged from irritating to catastrophic. Spam, meanwhile, remains a major headache despite notable improvements in filtering and challenge-response systems, though Pegoraro maintains that the best anti-spam strategy is using an obscure email address. The author expresses his displeasure at the expansion and misuse of patent and copyright laws, which threatens the innovation that is the lifeblood of the computing and electronics industries by opening the floodgates for any opportunistic firm or individual hoping to reap financial rewards by demanding royalties for patents, no matter how obscure or questionable. Pegoraro writes that Apple's iTunes Music Store and similar setups, which give buyers a wide latitude in how they use their purchases, could be a far more effective deterrent to online file-swapping than litigation against MP3 file traders. The rollout of speedy Internet connections through cable, Wi-Fi wireless, and digital subscriber lines by broadband Internet developers played a significant role in the spread of such services. Trends the writer believes are poised to make headlines soon include Really Simple Syndication, in which the latest news is automatically collected from numerous Web sites; the employment of instant-messaging programs to receive free audio and video chat; and voice over Internet protocol services. Pegoraro notes that there was little development in terms of PC resizing or reconfiguration in 2003, while peripherals accompanied their decrease in size and cost with an increase in intelligence.
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Information technology workers will have a better chance of maintaining job security or finding new jobs if they acquire certain skills and/or certifications, according to experts. Foote Partners President David Foote reports that security certifications experienced the highest value increase in 2003, thanks to companies' desire to not just boost security but to adhere to government regulations regarding information management in the financial services and health care industries. He adds that security skills in forensics and intrusion detection are highly valued, while database administration is still one of the highest certification premiums despite a 9.7 percent decline in value over the past two years. Forrester analyst Noel Yuhanna says IT professionals can boost their competitive value by expanding their skills, and people skilled in wireless, Web services, and Linux will probably be the most highly sought after in 2004. In addition, IT workers who can squeeze the most value out of existing systems will have less trouble getting work, according to industry observers. Al Lill of Gartner believes knowledge management, business intelligence, real-time analytics, content management, broadband, middleware, and data mining will also be regarded as important areas of expertise. "Technical workers need to strike a balance between maintaining their core skills and learning more about the emerging technologies," advises SAP job expert Jon Reed. He points out that SAP ABAP programmers would do well to add Web-based programming to their repertoire, given the migration of SAP's products to a Web-based platform.
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Among the technology-related highlights of 2003 was the controversy erupting from electronic touch-screen voting machines, whose ease of use, convenience, and purported security belied such drawbacks as the lack of an audit trail; computer experts also declared e-voting software susceptible to hacking and disclosed flaws in vote-counting software that could be exploited to change election results. On a positive note, several state governments required the enhancement of e-voting machines with paper ballots, while Congress is considering a national mandate for auditable systems. The migration of white-collar tech jobs to cheaper overseas markets gained traction this year, sparking speculation that such a trend is beneficial to U.S. companies and consumers in general, and is an inevitable fact of global economic maturation. Spam ran rampant over the Internet in 2003, and it has yet to be seen whether the passage of the first federal anti-spam act into law will bear any positive fruit. The music industry's numerous lawsuits against individual online file-swappers has barely made a dent in trading volume, but much more significant this year was the wild success of Apple's iTunes Music Store, a service that follows a practical, common-sense model to Internet music sales by allowing customers to use the music they purchase in any manner they see fit. A flashpoint in the open-source versus proprietary software debate was the SCO Group's lawsuit against IBM for allegedly embedding elements of Unix source code into Linux, and its refusal to accept the General Public License's (GPL) validity; the open-source contingent could be crippled if the courts accept SCO's argument, while SCO's demonizing of Linux, even if unsuccessful in invalidating the GPL, could make Linux seem a riskier bet for users. The death of technologist Anita Borg in April was a major loss for the technology industry, and for women in IT. Borg's achievements included the founding of the Systers mailing list and the Institute for Women and Technology, and she is remembered for her dedication to teach tech enthusiasts the importance of the "nontechnical" aspects of innovation.
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For information on ACM's activities regarding e-voting, visit http://www.acm.org/usacm/Issues/EVoting.htm.

Information technology and security consultant Peter H. Gregory makes a welter of forecasts concerning computer security in 2004, much of them negative. He predicts increased creativity among spammers in circumventing filtering programs through such crafty measures as random punctuation and graphics interchange format images, and greater quantification of spam-related productivity losses and processing costs by organizations. "Spam, once the domain of unsolicited junk email, will become plain unwanted email," Gregory anticipates. Because less security is a direct consequence of reduced desktop environment integrity, the author portends that enterprises will limit users' authority to install software and reconfigure--or misconfigure, as the case may be--their desktop systems. Gregory believes one or more major enterprises will try to prohibit the use of Universal Serial Bus flash drives, arguing that they are being used by malicious workers to leak proprietary data; this will only generate bad publicity for an already impotent strategy. The wave of contagious computer worms throughout 2003 will help hasten the deployment of personal firewall software on end-user systems, and there will be wider employment of tools that scrub metadata. The consultant raises the possibility that more malicious hacks will be perpetrated in 2004 thanks to a growing mobile phone monoculture, and expects Bluetooth and corporate Wi-Fi networks to also be targets for hackers. Other predictions Gregory makes include a shrinkage in the interval between the disclosure of software vulnerabilities and the launch of exploits; a growth in the cyberspace equivalent of organized crime, in which hackers blackmail ISPs and Web site operators to give them money or face denial-of-service attacks; publicized intrusions into the Internet-linked SCADA infrastructures of public utilities; and instant messaging hacks.
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Predictions for 2004 include less illicit spam and more spam from large corporations, booming Asian tech markets dictating standards, desktop alternatives to Microsoft hitting the market in stride, and PC technology becoming more functional. Legislative and technical efforts have made many spam operations illegal and increasingly unfruitful, but leave the door open for large companies desperate to reach Web users who have blocked their pop-up ads and seldom click on banner advertisements. The major ISPs and personal Internet security firms now offer free spam-blocking solutions that work well against Viagra marketing ploys but have a difficult time differentiating between marketing email and service-oriented email sent by legitimate companies. Meanwhile, China, the world's largest market for mobile phones--and soon PCs as well--is racing to catch up with regional competitors Japan and South Korea in terms of telecommunications capabilities; large U.S. telecommunications firms remain coddled by government regulation and feel a similar technological upgrade is unnecessary. China's strong market presence means it can get away with unilateral technology implementations, such as a new wireless security standard for mobile phones that bypasses traditional IT forums such as the Institute of Electronics and Electrical Engineers. Alternatives to Microsoft's Windows and Office software are gaining ground outside the United States as well. As corporate IT costs remain too high, this next year will see real market challenges to Microsoft products take shape. PC vendors are moving into sales of more profitable periphery devices as well as digital hub systems that take on unconventional tasks such as photo album viewing and video recording; these periphery and digital hub offerings will likely be bundled in 2004.
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Though the United States still has plenty of Internet Protocol addresses to go around using IP version 4 (IPv4), Asian nations face a greater urgency to update to IP version 6 (IPv6) in order to forestall a shortage of IP addresses due to the proliferation of mobile phones and other devices in the region. As a result, China, South Korea, and Japan are spearheading a collaborative effort to effect a widescale IPv6 transition, and some experts are concerned that U.S. technology companies such as IBM and Microsoft could be overtaken by the Asian initiatives. Analyst Zeus Kerravala is not one of them: "If people were using other features of IPv6 besides more IP addresses, like embedded security, I would say yes, but the only value of version 6 is more IP addresses," he explains. "There's nobody taking advantage of other IPv6 features, so I don't think it's going to give anybody a competitive advantage." Kerravala predicts that North America will probably not start adopting IPv6 for almost another decade. Nevertheless, Enterasys CTO John Roese notes that there is a growing interest in IPv6 adoption among American companies and the government. Developers--Enterasys among them--are ratcheting up their rollout of IPv6 technologies because the U.S. government, the top IT customer in the world, represents a huge market opportunity. Kerravala sees few benefits for American companies in an IPv6 transition, since patch work, Network Address Translation, and other things already provide them similar advantages; the analyst also points out that IPv6 operates better in laboratory conditions than in a current real-world production environment. His prediction is that IPv6 will manifest itself as isolated pockets or "islands" rather than as a wholesale migration.
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An old concept for electricity generation via water has been given new life by University of Alberta researchers, who devised an "electrokinetic" method in which water dripped through about 450,000 microscopic channels in a ceramic filter causes positive and negative charges to build up, while electrical current is conducted along a pair of wire coils attached to the filter. While the process produces just minute amounts of electricity, it could be enough to power small electronic devices. The University of Alberta's Dr. Larry W. Kostiuk says the electrokinetic technique could also power micro-electro-mechanical systems. Kostiuk thinks that significant amounts of power could be generated by dribbling huge quantities of water through a gigantic filter, though this would require major improvements in the efficiency of the current electrokinetic process. The researchers contemplate that such a breakthrough could pave the way for pollution-free power plants with no moving parts. The electrical current produced by the experimental generator, which essentially consists of a water-filled beaker with the coil-linked filter on the bottom, is affected by the water's composition: Distilled water yields higher voltages but very little current compared to the tap water in Edmonton, while salt water generates higher current but lower voltages. The experiment also indicates that more power could be created by increasing the number of microchannels in the filter as well as the amount of water dripped through them. Electrokinetic generation was first suggested about 40 years ago by Carnegie Mellon University's J. Fletcher Osterle, who originally envisioned the process as a way to tap electricity to make water flow, rather than the other way round.
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Next-generation sensor networks will be the primary focus for the Homeland Security Advanced Research Projects Agency's (HSARPA) research and development efforts, according to HSARPA director David Bolka. He estimates that his agency will channel approximately $390 million in its current fiscal year into joint private-sector projects to devise new technologies such as systems architectures for sensor net management, systems for detecting radiation and nuclear threats, "over-the-horizon" sensors for maritime vessels, and biological and chemical sensor nets. A leading R&D project at HSARPA is the development of sensor nets to supplant and widen the scope of over 30 standalone biological and chemical sensors implemented at high-risk targets under the aegis of President Bush's BioWatch program. Funding will also be set aside for the development of outdoor biological-threat detectors, handheld sensors and field analysis facilities for first responders, and chemical/biological warning sensors for use indoors. Ninety percent of HSARPA's budget is devoted to the rollout of applicable technologies from private-sector initiatives within two years, while the remainder focuses on more long-term research similar to programs undertaken by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. But Bolka indicates that this emphasis will probably change as time goes on: "Right now, the focus is on time-to-market in everything we do," he explains. Bolka believes HSARPA's largest technological contribution will be lowering the size and cost of sensors while increasing their sophistication, and the agency may also play a part in "socializing" sensor technologies that have implications for privacy, such as cameras, infrared, and proximity sensors. "I don't think we need to invent anything new in communications; it's a question of how best to use existing communications technology," Bolka says.
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Bluetooth's market penetration through the popularity of mobile phones was a significant achievement this year, but wireless LAN (WLAN) and Ultra Wideband (UWB) could gain on Bluetooth and even push it out of its niche market, according to some experts. Motorola's Omid Tahernia, whose company obtained UWB through the recent buyout of XtremeSpectrum, notes that UWB currently boasts a 114 Mbps data rate, and is on track to accelerate to 500 Mbps by the end of next year. However, UWB currently lacks a definite specification, and Motorola, the only cellular technology provider with UWB so far, is up against Samsung, Nokia, Intel, and other members of the MultiBand OFDM Alliance. ISuppi senior analyst Scott Smyser reports, "Given that most of these companies are supporting this OFDM-based fi [frequency], I think that's the one that will win out or at least Motorola's fi may be a secondary fi." Tahernia says that Bluetooth has started to become ubiquitous in handsets, while UWB is in its infancy and convergence of these two technologies is still uncertain. Smyser believes Bluetooth is better suited to low-speed, low-data cable replacement in mobile terminals, while UWB fits in well with high-data-rate multimedia applications. Bluetooth is also challenged by the growth of WLAN, which gained momentum in 2003 through Intel's Centrino initiative.
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Among the people singled out by InformationWeek as significant innovators or influencers for 2004 is FedEx Institute of Technology Chairman Jim Phillips, whose goal is to turn the institute into "the technology epicenter" of the middle southern United States; 250 researchers at the center will focus on a variety of fields, including artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, cybersecurity, supply-chain management, neurodynamics, prosthetic limbs, and advanced learning. E-government administrator Karen Evans intends to apply her experiences as a civil servant, formidable negotiating skills, and familiarity with users to understand the needs of her agency while fully supporting the White House's collaborative tech approach so that the e-government plan outlined by her predecessor Mark Forman can move forward. Case Western Reserve University CIO Lev Gonick plans to turn Cleveland into a state-of-the-art tech community with the rollout of OneCleveland, a project to connect the city's major institutions through a high-speed broadband network that harnesses Case Western's wireless networking capabilities and idle fiber-optic cable. VMoksha CEO Pawan Kumar has developed an augmentation to the Software Engineering Institute's Capability Maturity Model and Capability Maturity Model Integration that covers 57 business processes; Kumar intends to unveil his proposal at Carnegie Mellon University next year. Gerry Wethington, CIO of Missouri and president of the National Association of State CIOs, aims to make the organization a provider of products that help facilitate IT operations in government agencies; one such product is the Enterprise Architecture Maturity Model, which Wethington advocates as a tool for simplifying government. Intel CTO Pat Gelsinger is spearheading a project to develop a silicon radio and embed the device in chips, in the hope that Intel chips will become a standard component of new-generation sensor networks, laptops, cell phones, and handhelds. Sutter Health CIO John Hummel has 750 projects slated for 2004 that aim to revolutionize the health-care industry, chief among them a $5 billion hospital renovation initiative; other projects on Hummel's plate include the Enterprise Master Patient Index, an extension of WAN bandwidth, and the adoption of a bar-code system to monitor drug distribution.
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Analysts and technology journalists debate whether the personal computer is in its autumn years or has a long and healthy life ahead of it: International Data analyst Roger Kay foresees continued consolidation and a leaning toward phones and other devices, while PC Magazine columnist Bill Machrone says the PC has achieved sufficient speed and reliability to open up a new world of applications. PC Magazine editor-in-chief Michael Miller notes that PCs have become more versatile and variegated, and he expects new applications and form factors to emerge. PC World editor Harry McCracken observes that PC functionality advances are more heavily emphasized in the media these days than speed as a key product differentiator, and adds that the importance of desktop PCs has declined to a certain degree along with price, while the PC market has become more homogeneous. TechTarget editor-in-chief Paul Gillin argues that PCs, with their overabundance of features and unresolved IT security and manageability issues, are a hindrance to business productivity; he agrees with Scott McNealy and Larry Ellison's suggestion to jettison local disks and place vital applications on a central server. Gus Venditto, editor-in-chief for the Earthweb and Internet.com networks, remarks that PC branding has grown in importance, but this alone will not give vendors a competitive edge. "Marketing computers is much harder because standards have blurred many of the differences--companies have too much invested in their existing systems to try anything too different," he says. McCracken points to an erosion of the middle market for PCs, noting that the most successful vendors are very large or very small. CBS tech correspondent Larry Magid urges PC vendors to advertise service, integrated solutions, and ease of use, while columnist John C. Dvorak comments that many PC ads do not do a good job of explaining how products work or why they cost more than other models.
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Advocates of affective computing believe computers should be designed from the beginning to identify, communicate, and have an impact on emotion in users, a concept that runs counter to the prevailing wisdom of most artificial intelligence experts, who consider unemotional rule-based systems to be the best model. Part of the challenge in creating an affective computer is the fact that perceiving emotional indicators, interpreting those cues, and expressing emotion are all discreet functions. The MIT Media Lab is engaged in several affective computing projects involving intelligent tutoring systems: One such system, AutoTutor, monitors and responds to the student's psychological state by using Latent Semantic Analysis to study the sentences the user types in and determine the user's knowledge by comparing the semantics to an idealized student model; the student's knowledge gaps are subsequently filled in by an animated avatar. Another Media Lab experiment is Laura, a comely software agent programmed to converse with users and recall discussions for later exchanges. Media Lab researcher Tim Bickmore is coordinating a study to measure how emotionally attached to Laura users get by having them relate to her with various degrees of intimacy to see how well they adhere to an exercise program the agent encourages them to follow. UC San Francisco professor Paul Ekman, who compiled physical signs of emotion into his Facial Action Coding System (FACS), believes applying that system to computing would enable a machine to recognize facial expressions in near-real time, and he and Rutgers' Mark Frank have entered into a contract with the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency to develop automated FACS. Ben Shneiderman of the University of Maryland's Human-Computer Interaction Lab cautions, "[A computer] tending to human emotion could be a good thing, but pretending to be a human has not shown to be productive." Computer experts also warn that affective computers can fail in their goal to reduce people's stress and frustration by being overattentive.
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An array of technologies will emerge over the next decade with the purpose of accelerating military deployment and response, increasing battlefield safety, and minimizing casualties and damage at home and abroad. Advances in the areas of sensors, data routing, data mining, high-speed computing, displays, and expert systems are driving computer power and accessibility to the point where battlefield commanders will have anytime/anywhere access to all the data they require so that conflicts can be won with a minimal loss of life. Information about security threats will be provided in real time by integrated sensors and reliable networks, while software programs depending on expert systems will meld data and information into displays and patterns that commanders can utilize to be more efficient and effective strategists. Simple, noninvasive biological, chemical, and weapons detection measures are expected to enhance security at transportation centers and U.S. borders, while potentially dangerous materials will be tracked by global positioning systems, radio frequency identification tags, cameras, and other next-generation devices. For home users, there is a clear consumer need for individual warning and protection systems against spoiled food and industrial toxins, and this need will be met by small, inexpensive sensors. A stronger distributed-architecture cyber net that spans the globe and can reduce the damage and improve recovery from cyberattacks is expected in the next decade, thanks to the advancement of high-capacity laser links in wireless and optical communications, and more pervasive Internet protection architectures. Faster vehicles, new logistics management strategies, and improved communications will allow military forces to respond faster to threats both offensively and defensively. Finally, the development of new multifunctional materials will usher in an age of advanced protection systems such as near-invisible camouflage, lighter and sturdier body armor, and remote health monitoring of soldiers.