The IT Profession: 2010: The World Gets Smaller
Still
Computerworld (07/17/06) Brandel, Mary
While lower-skill IT jobs continue to fall victim to outsourcing, demand
for IT professionals, particularly those with business or project
management skills, is on the rise. Over the next few years, countries such
as India, China, Brazil, and Russia will continue to mature, further
solidifying the view among U.S. companies that it is economically untenable
to hire highly paid domestic workers for basic programming, tech support,
quality assurance, and other low-skill positions. In the face of the
ongoing globalization of IT, some are keener to see the trend as an
opportunity than a problem. "Would it be the worst thing in the world if
you did your first three years of IT in Ireland, Germany, India, or China?"
asks John Wade, CIO at Saint Luke's Health System. With the retirement of
the baby boomers looming, Edward Gordon, author of "The 2010 Meltdown,"
looks ahead four years to 79 million people leaving the workforce with only
49 million entering, while the demands on the technology economy will
continue to grow. As globalization continues to reshape the economy, U.S.
hegemony in software design is by no means assured, according to Moshe
Vardi, the Rice University computer science professor who co-authored the
"Globalization and Offshoring of Software" report issued by ACM. "Years
ago in the software area, there was one serious competitor--the U.S.--and
that's changing." Rising wages in India could make China, Eastern Europe,
and Latin America the new hotspots for outsourcing. Meanwhile, new
platforms such as the Semantic Web and Web 2.0 could spark a new wave of
innovation and startups creating considerable job opportunities in the
United States, Vardi predicts. With low-skill labor readily available from
a host of overseas markets, the jobs that will be created in the United
States will place a premium on aggregating service management, business
analysis, and project management. To view "Globalization and Offshoring of
Software--A Report of the ACM Job Migration Task Force" visit
http://www.acm.org/globalizationreport
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H.P. to Unveil Radio Chips to Store Data
New York Times (07/17/06) P. C8; Markoff, John
Hewlett-Packard is rolling out a wireless chip that can be attached to
virtually any object and provide video, audio, or textual information about
it through an inexpensive reader. Though hesitant to speculate on
commercial applications, company officials suggested that the device could
be used to connect audio that could be played back to a photograph, or to
read and update a patient's medical information from an ID bracelet. In
their first iteration, the chips store up to 512,000 bytes of information,
and are intended for a different purpose than RFID tags. "What we're
talking about is distributing digital information in the physical world,"
said Hewlett-Packard's Howard Taub. Hewlett-Packard's Memory Spots are
only readable from close distances, but store much more information than
RFID tags. Like RFID technology, reading devices emit radio fields, which
in turn power the Memory Spots, though Hewlett-Packard executives envision
broader applications for the technology than just supply-chain management
and basic identification. If mass-produced, the devices could cost as
little as 10 cents each. Though their commercial success is far from
assured, one notable advantage of the chips is their small processor that
enables some data-protection features.
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AI Reaches the Golden Years
Wired News (07/17/06) Cohn, David
Leading artificial intelligence experts will gather in Boston this week to
commemorate the field's 50th anniversary and take stock of its
accomplishments and shortcomings. "Artificial intelligence has
accomplished more than people realize," said futurist Ray Kurzweil. "It
permeates our economic infrastructure. Every time you place a cell phone
call, send an email, AI programs are directing information." The term
"artificial intelligence," now firmly etched in popular culture, was coined
at a 1956 Dartmouth workshop intended to describe the application of human
intelligence as computation. Though computers have been able to defeat the
world's top chess players, artificial intelligence still struggles with
problems such as image recognition, and has yet to come close to being able
to carry on a conversation. Defeating chess champion Garry Kasparov
signaled a shift in artificial intelligence away from trying to simulate
general human intelligence in favor of comprehensive knowledge in specific
areas. Artificial intelligence applications have nevertheless seen many
practical applications: banks use artificial intelligence programs to
monitor for fraud; cell phone companies use them for voice recognition; and
doctors use them to help treat patients. Artificial intelligence is also
becoming increasingly important to the scientific community, where the
aggregation of data is outpacing scientists' ability to analyze it. A
notable achievement came last year with the robotic car Stanley's
successful victory in the DARPA Grand Challenge road race. Taking the
successes and failures of artificial intelligence in sum, Stanford's John
McCarthy, who helped organize the 1956 workshop, believes that the field is
still very much in its infancy. "I think 200 years from now we are going
to smile back and think of this era as blind and stumbling people who were
trying to make progress but didn't know where to poke."
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DHS Asset Database Can't Support Vaunted
Infrastructure
Government Computer News (07/12/06) Dizard III, Wilson P.
The Department of Homeland Security maintains a database of key resources
and infrastructures that is so flawed that it cannot serve as a useful tool
on which to base decisions regarding the protection of national resources,
according to a statement issued by the department's inspector general.
Faulty data-collection practices have led state officials to include
irrelevant assets in the lists they submit to the National Asset Database,
the report charges. Since 2003, the department has been collecting data
about critical infrastructure to support the National Infrastructure
Protection Plan (NIPP). Among the inspector general's list of flaws,
however, was the fact that the database does not distinguish the
criticality of its roughly 77,000 assets. The report also criticizes the
database for not providing a comprehensive picture of the nation's
resources, its lack of sophisticated risk-assessment tools, and the
substantial amount of work it still requires to be completed. Some of the
entries are missing ZIP codes or facility names, while the accuracy of
others is obscured by language-translation problems. In one instance,
"officials estimated that on average each [critical infrastructure/ key
asset] record they researched was missing information for about seven
fields," according to the report. With much of the data being furnished
from state officials who are not trained to identify the most critical
resources, the database contains several comical and embarrassing entries,
such as Nix's Check Cashing and Amish Country Popcorn. In response to the
criticisms of the report, DHS officials claimed that the agency is
understaffed and underfunded. They also said the database is designed to
be comprehensive, and that its assets can be mined by more specific
programs and reporting methods.
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Girls Build Airplanes and, Hopefully, an Interest in
Science and Engineering
University of St. Thomas Bulletin Today (07/17/06)
Seventh-graders attending the free, week-long Science, Technology, and
Engineering Preview Summer (STEPS) camp for girls at the University of St.
Thomas will learn how to build and fly radio-controlled airplanes,
hopefully kindling an interest in science and technology. Since its
inception at St. Thomas in 2000, more than 1,100 girls will have passed
through the program by the time the final session concludes July 27. The
dozen STEPS programs being conducted throughout the country this year have
drawn participation from more than 1,000 girls, according to Bart Aslin,
chief foundation officer at the Society of Manufacturing Engineers
Education Foundation, which helps academic institutions establish the
camps. "Our foundation supports programs like STEPS to influence young
women and minorities to pursue career opportunities in manufacturing,
science, engineering, and technology. Studies show that young people make
their scholastic career decisions around sixth or seventh grade and the
camps give them an opportunity to explore their interests," he said. "The
ultimate goal is to increase the number of students choosing these
careers." Women account for just around 20 percent of undergraduates
earning bachelor's degrees in physics, computer science, and engineering.
That figure drops to 14 percent in the disciplines of electrical and
mechanical engineering. In the St. Thomas program, the girls receive
instruction in electricity, Web design, computer-aided design, robotics,
and other subjects. In addition to the physical construction of the plane,
the girls spend time on a flight simulator to familiarize themselves with
the remote controls they use to fly the planes. To learn more about ACM's
Committee on Women and Computing, visit
http://women.acm.org
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Gadgets Get the Feel of the Tactile World
New Scientist (07/15/06) Vol. 191, No. 2560, P. 26; Marks, Paul
Haptic devices, or devices that stimulate the sense of touch, are
approaching a price point that could finally enable widespread deployment
of gadgets such as a cell phone with a GPS device that would guide a user
to his destination through physical impulses. Whereas haptic devices have
so far been limited to simplistic uses such as the vibrating feature in
cell phones and game controllers, new applications could transform
entertainment and communications, and provide assistance for the visually
impaired. Video-game controllers will take a giant leap forward with the
Novint Falcon, a device that can simulate the weight and recoil of a gun
and the feeling of wading through water. The controller is made up of a
round gripper attached to a base with three mechanical arms, which create a
three-dimensional resistance when force is applied from motors in the base.
The device uses a commoditized version of the technology that enables
computer artists to sculpt virtual clay and allows surgeons to manipulate
robotic arms. As researchers look to develop even more sophisticated
haptic devices, they face a major challenge in creating hardware that can
simulate texture and elasticity to the same ultrasensitive degree as human
skin. "The hand is exquisitely sensitive to a range of textures," said
Susan Lederman, head of the Touch Lab at Queen's University in Ontario.
"The ideas in this field have always been inhibited by the technology
available." A team of Canadian researchers has developed a tactile display
for mobile devices consisting of an array of electrically charged bars
that, when touched by a finger, tricks the brain into thinking that the
finger is actually touching an object with shape or texture. Meanwhile,
NTT has developed a handheld device that it will showcase at this month's
SIGGRAPH conference that actually pushes a user in a given direction by
creating the sensations of movement.
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Aussie Steps Into ICANN Hot Seat
iTWire (07/14/06) Corner, Stuart
Aussie corporate affairs specialist Paul Levins has been named the first
vice president of corporate affairs at ICANN. Though admitting that ICANN
is far from perfect, Levins says that its Internet governance model "has
been successful and it has been scrutinized though the U.N. process and the
World Summit on the Information Society in Tunin. I think ICANN has enough
credibility and the ICANN board has key architects like Vint Cerf and
people who currently manage the Internet globally. It has built up
enormous credibility." He stresses that ICANN's model may not be the best
available but it is the one the world will have to deal with, so it's best
to correct flaws, a major one being ICANN's failure to communicate
effectively with stakeholders, particularly those in the
non-English-speaking world. This is largely due to the fact that the
organization does not have a staff exclusively tasked with this goal.
"They had a media advisor who did the job for a couple of years after they
started up, but even that role has been empty for the past year," he said.
"So the burden has fallen onto the senior management team and they have had
to share that along with their other responsibilities. That is less than
desirable: You need someone with specialist skills." Levins intends to
fill that role, which will also entail the revamping of ICANN's Web site to
reflect the international nature of the Web. "I want to have a 'DNS for
Dummies' in book form and to experiment with a lot of visual material in a
cartoon or comic book form: the sort of thing people can pick up and say,
'This is how I can participate in the management of the Internet.'"
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Renowned Thinker Sees Boundless Future
Pioneer Press (07/12/06) Suzukamo, Leslie Brooks
Ray Kurzweil recently delivered a speech at the University of St. Thomas
in St. Paul that touched on a wide range of subjects, from molecular
computing and cybernetics to nanorobots. The greatest thinker on
artificial intelligence today, according to Bill Gates, is a well-known
computer scientist who specializes in pattern recognition. Most of the
books he has written are about thinking computers and the potential
contributions of technology to biological advances, and in his new book,
"The Singularity Is Near," Kurzweil says unlimited power, life expectancy,
and human progress will be a near reality in 25 to 30 years. Innovation is
accelerating, Kurzweil says in an interview with the Pioneer Press, adding
that the powerful tools available today will be used to develop even more
powerful tools in the years to come. Moore's Law transcends computers,
says Kurzweil, who expects to see the reprogramming of biological processes
in the next 15 years, a development that will allow people to overcome
major diseases. Kurzweil has often been right in his predictions, such as
the world chess champion would lose to a computer by 1998, which happened
in 1997, and the development of a world communications network, which has
emerged in the form of the Web. He expects to see huge strides in
biological technology, with hardware that mimics human intelligence
available for $1,000, and technology that can stifle the pace of cancer and
heart disease.
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Turing-Inspired Scripting Language Simplifies Simulation
Complexity
Embedded.com (07/13/06) Shankar, Deepak; Koivisto, Daryl
Deepak Shankar and Daryl Koivisto of Mirabilis Design detail how
simulation kernels can be streamlined through the use of SmartMachine, a
platform-independent overlay architecture exploration language that
piggybacks on concepts devised for the original Turing Machine. Creating
models with simulation languages is a point of difficulty, as they take a
much longer time to build relative to the solutions being supplanted. The
SmartMachine is much further along than the Turing Machine in terms of
deployment. It is also more akin to a state-machine, can easily
accommodate threads, and works on memories. SmartMachine is made up of 10
instructions, 40 keywords, and a just-in-time compiler that can ratchet up
simulation performance 10 to 100 times that of existing scripting
languages. Software estimation, real-time operating systems, hardware
refinement, multi-threaded applications, complex functional expressions,
switch fabrics, protocol state diagrams, advanced statistics generation,
and algorithm analysis are just some of the applications that can benefit
from the use of SmartMachine, particularly in circumstances where the model
schematic size and simulation speed are important. With SmartMachine,
modelers can craft reusable blocks. The language is flexible and offers
ease-of-learning and use, small code footprint, and native code speed
simulation performance.
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The Bookshelf Talks With Seth Lloyd
American Scientist (07/12/06) Vol. 3, No. 7,Ross, Greg
Quantum-mechanical engineer Seth Lloyd, author of the book "Programming
the Universe," perceives quantum computers as actual devices as opposed to
a metaphor, while acknowledging that the computers' most valuable property
is their ability to help people better understand nature. He notes that
his own experience in building quantum computers has shaped his view of the
world, adding weight to his belief in the theory of a computational
universe. Quantum computers store and process information at the atomic
level, and Lloyd describes the largest general-purpose quantum computer
currently in existence as being composed of only about 12 atoms, or quantum
bits. Lloyd says it is within our abilities to build special-purpose
analog quantum computers of a billion billion bits that can simulate and
replicate natural forces far beyond the capabilities of classical
computers. Such computations are possible because atomic-scale computers
exhibit weird quantum-mechanical behavior. Lloyd has envisioned a
1-kilogram quantum laptop that can carry out an astronomically large number
of logical operations per second, the catch being that to do so it must
operate at an astronomically high temperature. He says building a
general-purpose quantum computer with vast numbers of bits is important,
but even more important is gaining greater comprehension of natural quantum
processing. "Unless we can understand how the world processes information
at a quantum level, we will remain in the dark," Lloyd concludes.
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Microsoft Research Automates Hunt for Search Engine
Spam
eWeek (07/13/06) Naraine, Ryan
Researchers at Microsoft are taking a new approach to cracking down on
spam in search engine returns. By employing a context-based strategy that
makes use of URL-redirection analysis Microsoft hopes to find the spammers
and notify search engines before they index the spam sites. Search engines
pick up spammers because they post millions of phony comments on message
boards and blogs, says Yi-Min Wang, the Microsoft researcher who leads the
Strider Search Defender project. Spam has become such a huge problem on
the Web that almost every search query now returns a spam site, says Wang.
Spammers trick search engine users into clicking on their fake sites by
creating doorway pages on reputable domains, then spam the doorway pages to
forums, blog comments, and archived newsgroups all over the Web in an
effort to move near the top of the search engine results page. Wang's team
views a spam page as a dynamic program, and plans to use the Microsoft
Research prototype technology Strider HoneyMonkey to analyze traffic
results from each page visit with an actual browser. "By identifying those
domains that serve target pages for a large number of doorway pages, we can
catch major spammers' domains together with all their doorway pages and
doorway domains," says Wang.
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Threats From Hackers 'Converging,' Researchers Say
E-Commerce Times (07/13/06) Koprowski, Gene J.
Security vulnerabilities in the three media of email, the Web, and instant
messaging are converging, experts warn, increasing the risk level facing
computer users. "The increased convergence of threats across email, Web,
and IM, combined with the increased sophistication of techniques, is an
interesting new development," said Mark Sunner, CTO of MessageLabs.
"Today, we see a growing number of emails and IMs containing links to Web
sites where malware or spyware is automatically downloaded, as opposed to
the traditional method where the message itself has a piece of malware
attached." MessageLabs, which recently conducted a detailed study of the
changing landscape of security threats, found that spam is generally on the
rise, and that viruses and phishing attacks are becoming increasingly
targeted. The portion of global email that is spam increased to 64.8
percent in June, a 6.9 percent jump from the previous month. Israel
remains the world's leading target for spam, which accounts for 75.9
percent of all of its email traffic. In the wake of the Nyxem.D outbreak
in February, India is still the country most subject to virus attacks.
Spyware distribution is becoming increasingly aligned with spam and
viruses, Sunner said. "For example, we have seen more evidence of spammers
employing spyware to make their campaigns more effective. This leaves
businesses with the increasingly complex challenge of securing company data
and intellectual property without sacrificing important avenues of employee
communication," he said. ISPs are beginning to work together to curb the
spread of spam through associations such as the London Internet Exchange
(LINX), a consortium of 220 ISPs. While spam continues to plague much of
the world, there are anomalies that defy the trend. Australia, for
instance, saw its rate of spam decline by more than 50 percent in the nine
months leading up to June.
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Megatrends: The Global Factor
Electronic Design (06/29/06) Vol. 54, No. 14, P. 21; Schneiderman, Ron
A number of wide-ranging developments or "megatrends" are anticipated in
the next few years, and companies, government agencies, and market research
organizations are taking notice. Wireless is expected to reach a massive
scale of ubiquity and lead to fundamental changes in people's work,
behavior, leisure activities, health care, learning processes, and daily
life, according to Phil Asmundson of Deloitte & Touche USA's Technology,
Media, & Telecommunications Industry consulting practice. The digital home
is projected to become a megatrend riding on many factors: The
federally-mandated switchover from analog to digital TV broadcasting, an
explosion of IP-enabled devices, a boom in the adoption of wireless
products and services, and growing momentum for HDTV, etc. Another
megatrend is equipment manufacturers' increased concentration on designing
environmentally friendly products per directives driven by the European
Union and other institutions. The success of location-based products and
services is being fueled by advances in the Global Positioning System
(GPS), while emerging global markets such as China, the Middle East, South
Africa, and India are becoming very lucrative areas for exploitation thanks
to lower material costs, economies of scale, and more highly integrated
chip designs. Where people are educated and where they work is becoming
another megatrend, and debate is brewing over the United States' future
status as the global center for innovation. Declining numbers of
U.S.-based high-tech workers adds weight to the argument that the H-1B visa
program should be expanded, while transitioning the program from a
temporary to a permanent measure is seen by some as critical to sustaining
America's innovation capacity and its satisfaction of high-tech workforce
demands.
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Software U
Forbes (07/24/06) Doyle, Tim
Graham Doxey believes Neumont University in suburban Salt Lake City, Utah,
can help ramp up the number of computer science graduates the United States
is producing each year. Doxey, Neumont president and veteran with Merrill
Lynch and Lehman Brothers, teamed up with Scott McKinley, a former
executive of JPMorgan Chase and Capgemini Asia, and Norwegian software
developer and executive Marlow Einelund to get the engineering school up
and running in 2004. Einelund's assurances about the shortage of
engineering professionals resulted in the founders, their families, and
friends investing $4 million in the idea, and the school has since been
sold to Great Hill Partners, a Boston private equity firm with $1.5 billion
under management that has invested another $20 million in Neumont. The
for-profit school in an office park offers a project-oriented, hands-on
curriculum that is designed to appeal to employers, and lead to good jobs
for its 250 students. Most of Neumont's professors come from corporate
America, and new technology is the focus of 70 percent of the 8-to-5
year-round classes, with 30 percent of the time devoted to theory. The
school had jobs lined up for its first 27 graduates this spring, and the
average starting salary was $61,000. Nonetheless, some in the traditional
educational community, such as Carnegie Mellon engineering school dean
Pradeep Khosla, have taken issue with Neumont's effort to rush students to
the job market and its heavy focus on practice. Doxey says his goal is to
produce more computer science graduates than any other educational
institution in the world.
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100-Mbps Broadband: How, Why, When, and Where?
EDN (07/07/06) P. 48; Wright, Maury
Multiple-service operators (MSOs) and telecom companies are offering
bundled "triple play" packages of voice, video, and data services, but
consumers demand new video services--HDTV and DVR, for instance--that
consume great quantities of bandwidth, making the last mile seem even
further away. Though digital subscriber line (DSL) implementations have
surpassed cable globally, DSL may be the most challenging option in terms
of video delivery. Consumers want a half-dozen channels in IPTV
applications, and two of those channels must be of HDTV quality. This
entails 50 Mbps broadband services, at least. The takeup of passive
optical network (PON) technology is picking up momentum in Japan and to a
lesser degree in North America. The network can be deployed aerially on
utility poles, saving money and construction costs. Hybrid PON/DSL
networks may be most advantageous for cities where copper-network
installations are present. Providers of such services will need to be
patient if they want their research and development efforts to pay off.
"From the time we kick off a program until we get a production part, it's
18 months to three years," notes Neal Neslusan with Applied Micro Circuits'
Transport Group. "Then, you get design wins, and that takes a couple of
more years."
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Six Trends Driving the Global Economy
Wired (07/06) Vol. 14, No. 7, P. 132; Anderson, Chris; Brown, Eryn;
Kelleher, Kevin
User-generated content is the core component of the most successful Web
companies, giving rise to a "peer-production" architecture where amateurs
and professionals share a complementary relationship. Standard-bearers
include Amazon with its peer reviews, News Corp. with its tens of millions
of MySpace pages, Yahoo! with its Flickr photo-sharing service, and Google
with its user-based algorithms. Mergers and acquisitions are emerging as a
new vehicle for research and development, with companies such as eBay,
Yahoo!, and Google buying up firms with entrenched market presence and
dedicated R&D efforts rather than building their own R&D departments.
Video is proliferating to screens and formats of all kinds, to the point
where it is becoming available anytime and anywhere and generating revenue.
The multiscreen-video trend has cultivated an explosion in content and
hardware, with the Apple Video iPod being just one of the many technologies
serving the trend. Online personalization is another movement gaining
momentum, and making inroads into such markets as clothing, media, and
medicine. The Internet has cemented the concept of open standards and the
all-access economy, with such milestones as a simple, easy to use interface
provided by Web standards. The open environment has nurtured competition,
which has fueled regular improvements.
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Warning: eVoting Ahead
Governing (07/06) Vol. 19, No. 10, P. 44; Perlman, Ellen
There seems to be no clear answer to whether electronic voting systems are
as susceptible to tampering and fraud as critics make them out to be.
Touch-screen machines from Diebold Election Systems have been frequently
targeted by vote-protection advocates, who charge that the manufacturer
intentionally inserted a flaw that makes it easy to tweak the systems'
workings and manipulate votes. Touch-screen systems have also been
criticized as inferior to electronic systems in other industries, but
Carnegie Mellon University computer science professor Michael Shamos
believes these problems can be easily remedied in time for this year's
election cycle by instituting appropriate security procedures. In
touch-screen machines' favor is the convenience they represent to disabled
and non-English-reading voters, which is a requirement of the Help America
Vote Act (HAVA). E-voting supporters also see a disconnect between the
possibility of machine tampering and the actual occurrence of such
mischief, arguing that other checks and balances are in place to prevent
such incidents. Optical-scan machines, meanwhile, are more popular among
local election districts and vote-protection proponents because they
provide something akin to a paper trail. A paper trail is a safeguard that
many legislators are demanding be incorporated into voting machines, and it
is required by law in over half the U.S. states. However, Shamos believes
a better solution can be found through research into improved e-voting
systems, and reasons that such research could be stifled by state
paper-trail legislation. Other complaints with touch-screen machines
include their overall design, which Ben Bederson, an associate professor of
computer science at the University of Maryland and the director of its
Human-Computer Interaction Lab, calls "immature and not up to par with the
rest of the computing industry." To read more about ACM's e-voting
activities and studies, visit
http://www.acm.org/usacm
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